Is a full CD of Music Dead?

[pathros]

Is a full CD of Music Dead?


I have the feeling that in a few years from now
the only way to get new(or old) music will be to
download it from the internet. When people download
music, they do not download an artists entire CD, they usually download only a few choice songs(they make their own best of). I think that the "single" or "one hit wonder" will be more prevalent again in the future. I do not see people buying 3 CD's(or more) from the same artist. We will need a better format than the mp3, but with broadband(high speed) that should not be a problem.

just some thoughts

[TheRealWaldo]

NO:  Why?  There internet doesn't exist everywhere (and won't), i.e. the ghetto.  Not everyone owns (and won't) credit cards or methods of payment that would be required to purchase music online.

However, even kids in the ghetto purchase CDs from their local shop, by saving up their pennies.

Also, In order to match CD quality with ZERO loss, with current technologies you can only knock the size of the CD down to about 1/2, where as CDs average around 1/12.  So, it will take an average of 6 times longer to download tracks that would match CD quality 100%, and take up 6 times more space.  (Avg. 2 minute download per track on high-speed for mp3, make that 12 minutes for CD quality)

Digital distribution will NOT be the leader for a considerable amount of time, and will NEVER take over entirely.

[pathros]

I know that CD's and CD players will be around for a very long time, there is no question about that, the 8 track is still around somewhere and so is Vinyl.
But, record companies are not making any real money on Vinyl at this time, or tape. The CD is not as lucrative now as it used to be(for the Record Companies), or CD stores, or Music Artists. The CD stores in NY, USA are selling less than half of what they did 5 years ago. I can buy 100 blank CDR's for almost nothing, almost every new computer sold today has a CD burner in it. My new DVD player plays mp3 CDR's(up to 200 songs per disk)they may not be as nice looking, but they all sound the same. Even poor neighorborhoods have CD burners now. I am just saying that if an artist wants to make money from their music(other than playing live and selling CD's at their concerts/shows) good fans will want to hear more from their favorite artists. The artist just needs to charge a nominal download fee and everyone is happy.
This scenario only works if they can't get it for free somewhere else i.e. p2p, and the Artist/Band is in high demand.  Only one person on a p2p site needs to have purchased the CD and millions of people
have that song or CD within a week. I don't think the CD is dead, but it may be dead as a profitable business.
A recent survey said people were more likely to buy a new Computer before they bought a new television or radio.

If you look at the financial news you will see that many of the large and medium sized media companies are writing of millions and millions in financial losses.

pathros

[TheRealWaldo]

Still, the fact remains that less than half the worlds population have a computer, and only around 80% of those people have internet connections, on top of that, only half of those people have high-speed connections, lets be generous and say 80% have CD burners.

So that leaves, what, 15-20% of the worlds population?

Sure, the numbers are crawling up, but they are VERY slowly crawling up, maybe a percentage a year during a spurt.

Whereas, the number of people who have CD players is much, much higher, in the range of 60% of the worlds population.

These reports of lost profits due to the internet are greatly exagerated.

A new distribution medium may eventually take over, but P2P relies on too many factors to be the 'leading' model.

If, per say, we could create an affordable 'wireless' player that could download high-quality tracks, prevent them from being copied easily, and play them back WITHOUT a computer system, burner, etc., then that might become the new wave.

[DAVID_VESEL]

I also do not think the CD is doomed, though for different reasons than Waldo.

People like stuff.

Software and digital information is fungible.  It is also not material property, so people do not develop attachments to them.  You would never steal a refrigerator, and yet people don't think twice about copying Cubase, even though they cost about the same.

Unless the value added is clear, people won't pay for an intangible good.  They want something they can hold and point to and show off.  That's why CDs still sell now, even with Internet song swapping.

I don't view OMDs as a replacement for traditional music media, but rather a venue for promoting it.  My goal is to sell CDs.  Sure, I'll sell 1 CD for every 1000 visitors to my web site, but that's not a problem if I draw 100,000 visitors.

Just like I think soft synths are pale compared to a rack 'o gear, I think people will continue to show off their impressive CD racks.  It's a human nature thing.  A full hard drive is much less impressive looking.

[pathros]

OK
mani, waldo, gearhead and now DAVID_VESEL
have told me the CD is not dead. I guess I also agree.
lol

The fact is, most of the referrals(new fan's) I get from my own music come from CD's that I have distributed.

Maybe new music will be on CD, but If I want only one old Stones, Bowie, etc, song, I would probably download it before I went out and bought the CD.

later
pathros